If you are growing tired of the same cautionary analysis about housing … it’s not you. This downturn has been long, and there still few signs of a quick rebound.

To make our point, we reviewed a decade’s worth of local real estate commentary from the Federal Reserve. Eight times a year, the Fed publishes a wrap of regional economic conditions across the nation from its local bankers in its so-called “Beige Book.” We’re in the Fed’s “12th District.”

The latest edition — 2011′s final — said Western state’s housing markets, in two words: “Remained anemic” vs. the last 2010 Beige Book that saw the West’s  residential markets “at vey low levels.” (Fed’s policy committee on Tuesday gave economy no new help.)

We looked back over the past 10 years of final Fed words on Western housing, as stated in the eighth Beige Book of each year. We noted pessimism back to 2006 — with a curious ray of hope in 2009. Plus, we noted an obviously ignored warning about Southern California cooling back in 2005!

For your reading pleasure …

2011: “Remained anemic”

Home sales and construction remained anemic … The pace of home sales was quite subdued, with contacts noting that despite low interest rates, relatively strict lending requirements have constrained purchasing activity. As a result of lackluster sales and the large number of financially distressed properties, the pace of home construction stayed depressed and home prices remained flat. By contrast, demand for residential rental units grew further. The vast majority of contacts expect demand in residential markets to change little in the near term.

2010: “Very low levels”

Activity in residential real estate markets generally remained unchanged at very low levels. The pace of home sales was mixed across areas of the District but appeared stable to down slightly on balance, despite improved affordability arising from low mortgage rates and past price declines. New home construction remained at exceptionally low levels, as sluggish sales and continued high rates of foreclosure caused the availability of new and existing homes to remain elevated..

2009: “Improve gradually”

Activity in the District’s housing markets continued to improve gradually … The pace of home sales in many areas of the District continued to pick up, and prices in some areas have risen for several consecutive months. However, ongoing increases in the supply of foreclosed properties in some areas have slowed the decline in the inventory of available homes and contributed to builders’ decisions to hold construction activity for new homes at very low levels.

2008: “Quite slow”

Activity in the District’s housing markets remained weak on net … Home sales were spurred in some areas by the availability of foreclosed units at rock-bottom prices, but the overall sales pace continued to be quite slow in most areas and fell considerably in some, such as parts of the Pacific Northwest. Foreclosure rates remained elevated in parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada, and they rose further in other states, notably Utah and Idaho.

2007: “Slowdown deepened”

The slowdown in District housing markets deepened during the survey period. The glut of available homes continued in most areas of the District, keeping construction activity at very low levels and causing prices on homes sold to drop noticeably in some regions; contacts reported no signs of improvement in existing weak conditions. Mortgage availability and terms improved slightly during the survey period but reportedly remained a significant constraint on home purchases in many areas.

2006: “Fell further”

Activity in residential real estate markets fell further, while demand for commercial real estate expanded but at a slower pace than previously in some areas. The pace of home sales and price appreciation continued to slow for existing and new homes, with particularly weak conditions noted for the latter. To work down unsold inventory, home builders have been offering significant incentives to entice buyers; these incentives reportedly have been valued as high as 10 percent of the listed prices. Residential construction activity has fallen substantially along with demand for homes.

2005: “Robust overall … cooling noted in SoCal”

Conditions remained robust overall in residential real estate markets despite slight moderation in some areas, and conditions in commercial real estate markets improved further. Home sales, price appreciation, and construction activity continued at rapid rates throughout the District, with especially strong demand noted for condominiums in Hawaii and in parts of the Pacific Northwest. However, cooling was evident in residential real estate activity in some markets–notably in Southern California, where existing houses remained on the market longer, inventories of new homes rose, and price appreciation slowed relative to previous survey periods.

2004: “Remained strong”

Demand for residential real estate generally remained strong, although in some areas the pace of home sales and price increases slowed slightly from previous rapid rates. On the commercial side, contacts indicated modest improvements; office and industrial vacancy rates edged down in several markets. The robust demand for homes, improved demand for commercial properties, and some increased public spending kept overall construction activity at high levels. Contacts noted that the supply of some construction materials, such as steel, improved, but other building materials, such as cement, continued to be in short supply.

2003: “Considerable strength”

2002: “Pace slowed”

Residential real estate markets in the District remained solid in recent weeks, although the pace of sales and price appreciation slowed, especially at the high end of the market. The slower pace of activity damped residential construction in many District states. In the San Francisco Bay Area, construction on some multifamily housing projects was put on hold. Elsewhere in the District, start times for several residential developments have been pushed back until the economy improves.

 

The statewide housing picture was slightly better last month than in Orange County and other California counties with high housing costs, a sign that the lowering of mortgage limits for government-sponsored agencies is cutting into pricier home sales.

The California Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing single-family homes increased statewide for a fifth consecutive month in November from the year before.

Sales of existing condos likewise had an upturn year over year, although the tally of deals was down slightly from October levels.

Specifically, CAR’s November housing report showed: